Is it better economically to run a car into the ground before buying a new one? Data driven answer

When you factor THAT in – then having a worry-free effortless new car can easily be worth the cost of swapping it out every 3 years.

Source: Steve Baker

Top 20 Comments:

1- Or buy a 3 year old Japanese (or nowadays a Korean would do) car, having let someone else take the bulk of the depreciation, and run it on a shoestring for the next 15 years, when it’s more likely the driver will clap out before the car does.

2- Everyone says this but when I tried to do it I couldn’t find one. It seemed like the only people selling 2–3 year old cars were rental agencies. Is it worth the risk of buying a former rental? I didn’t but it could be totally fine I guess.

3- Rental companies sell their cars early so they don’t have to maintain them very well. The people who rent them also don’t drive them gently – because they don’t care. So buying a rental car seems like a bad idea.

4-

Seems to me there are some significant things you have ignored or just plain got wrong. You say it’s only $94/month difference between 3 year ownership and 20 year ownership but doesn’t your calculation require that you only pay $25,000 every 3 years when you replace your car? Does that mean you have to keep buying less expensive cars or did you just ignore increasing prices because it didn’t fit with your conclusion?

What about other costs which would be less with an older car, for example insurance and excise taxes, if applicable where you live. Also depending on where you live there may be significant sales tax due every time you buy a new car

I don’t expect your analysis to be perfect or all encompassing but I think you have substantially understated the cost differential of owning a car for 3 years vs 20 years

5- The model is simplified. In the real world, most of those variables are unknowns with a heap of “it depends”. Car prices and maintenance/parts are both impacted by inflation, but that effect can be completely dominated by supply/demand issues specific to the item in question, e.g. they stop making a specific part, your particular vehicle increases in popularity; or the old car has lower insurance, but new car has better gas mileage, etc.

6-Yeah – you can NEVER know for sure. My simplified model makes it easier to discuss and think about the consequences of depreciation versus maintenance. In reality, you need to check how the car you’re buying depreciates – and what it costs to maintain. Once you know that – you can run through the same thought processes that I did and deduce what is right in your situation.

A HUGE part of this is how many miles you drive – depreciation is a mix of mileage and age.

7- I don’t understand why all the maintenance is needed. I ran a Toyota Prius till it was 14 years old and I spent around £350 a year on maintenance including servicing. I’ve just bought a 3 year old Honda Jazz that I fully expect to run for another 10 years at similar yearly costs. Drive it gently and keep under the speed limit.

8- That graph comes from a statistical analysis of what an average car needs. There are always going to be a few people who do better than that – and a few that do a hell of a lot worse.

So your anecdotal one-off proves nothing.

9- Looks like the maintenance costs are too inflated for older cars. If one needs to put in 10000 dollars in maintenance a year, it is time to let this car go. But I’ve see enough examples when cars were running for 10 years or more with just basic maintenance, not needing a new transmission or any major repairs. Good strategy could be to buy a 2–5 year old car for a fraction of a new car cost, and then run it into ground.

10- I drive Toyota Corollas. Exclusively. The one I have now is a 2017 and it cost me $17,000. Had 11,000 miles on it when I got it. Paid off in 18 months. Almost nothing to maintain except oil changes, new brakes, and one set of tires so far. Goal is to get 300,000 miles out of her like I did the previous ones. I will drive it until the wheels fall off. Or the air conditioning breaks. I do live in the South.

11- Very well thought out. I came to the conclusion that I am in the switch out every 3 year category now. The peace of mind of always having a warranty is worth it if you can afford it in my humble opinion.

12- One major point to add. The hot-potato risk of a major service issue can greatly accelerate the crusher date, and those last 10 years can be a toss up, fix or crush.

13-

I think your maintenance figures are too high. But, using your own figures exactly:

Buy at 5 years, keep another 15: ((10000+(10300-2100))/15 = $1213/year

Buy at 10 years, keep another 10: (4500+(10300-5150))/10 = $965/year

Buy at 15 years, keep another 5: (2000+(10300-8800))/5 = $700/year

I bought my previous car here in NZ, a 1997 Subaru Outback, in 2012 for US$2.5k, and sold it in 2019 for $600 (22 yr old). There was very little maintenance. I replaced the head gaskets in the same year I got it (planned). $2k? At some point the AC started leaking and it took a couple of refills to find and fix the leaks (first refill with a dye included, so the leaks could be seen before the 2nd refill). No biggie. $500 total? In 2018 something seized in the brakes on one wheel and started dragging. Again, a couple hundred bucks to fix. Aside from that, just regular servicing.

My current car is a 2008 Outback, bought in May 2020 for US$6k with 54,000 miles. So far the only unscheduled thing is a $15 A/C control relay. Beautiful car. Limited 2000 unit production Subaru 50th anniversary model. 265 HP STI turbo engine (0–60 in 5 seconds), “Touring” cabin spec, modern safety features such as dynamic cruise control, pre-collision braking, lane departure warning (in 2008!). Going to keep this thing a long long time. 富士重工業株式会社　ニュースリリース | ニュースリリース | 株式会社SUBARU（スバル）

14-I enjoy your answers Steve:)

The only exception to that I’ve experienced is buying a used electric vehicle. I purchased a very low mile (13k) 3 year old EV lease return and have had zero maintenance on it except for tires. I spent 9k on it still have it. It was paid off early because of the savings and I could probably get around 5k for it at 10y/o. Of course whoever has to replace the battery would get that cost so it might break even using your calculations. I plan to run it into the ground including using it as a storage battery for my off grid solar.

15- My wife and I are leasing a vehicle at the moment. It’s probably the best decision we’ve made regarding transportation. We drive a new car for three years, the dealer pays for all major maintenance while we only pay for oil changes and when the time is up, we give it back and get a new one. We pay one fixed monthly price for a reliable, safe and more fuel efficient vehicle. This actually costs us less than when we drove a used vehicle that would break down randomly throughout the year and would require expensive repairs, not to mention days without a vehicle. Still, people try to tell me how I’m a sucker because I went to the dealership. But the dollars don’t lie: I save far more money doing it this way. Unless of course I am going to steal all of my new vehicles. That would be a lot cheaper, until I was caught at least!

16- I like answers like this with real figures. They give sense of scale and change so nice one!

Side note is RVs or motorhomes, as called in UK, have weirder curve. As highly customized from new much steeper curve over first 3 years. Then long time flat up to 15 years. Then kind of afterlife up to 25 years.

Why excited about Tesla Truck, if ever happens. With RV conversion could last forever.

17- For me it is also stressful to spend time looking for a new car. Trying different models, find a good deal, compromising on this and that. Some people like this part, but I don’t.

So for me the optimum is to get rid of it before the stress occasionally bad news from the mechanics.

Ans: Find one brand/type that you like and stick to it. I owned 7 MINI Coopers in a row. The only decision each time was what color do I want this time?

I’ve now switched to Tesla as my go-to-brand – but I’ll do the same. However, the depreciation curve for Tesla’s is much more gentle – and they need almost no maintenance – and will likely last for 500,000 miles, not 200,000. So I won’t be replacing them every 3 or so years. Probably every 5? We’ll see. Right now, my 3 year old Tesla is worth $2,000 MORE than I paid for it…and is indistinguishable from a brand new Tesla. So there’s no way I’m replacing it right now.

18- In my experience, it’s only worthwhile for people to keep their cars until they have paid off the financing – assuming you haven’t done something stupid like financed over 72-84 months. If you need to do that to keep the payments down, you couldn’t afford the car in the first place.

Beyond that, it only makes sense to keep old vehicles if you are able to repair them yourself. In my case, since I do 90% of the post-warranty repair work on cars I own, I buy vehicles intending to keep them until they disintegrate into a pile of brown powder out there in the yard. My current vehicles are 7, 20, 22, and 23 years old. In the past 3 years I’ve sold off other cars I owned that were 21 and 18 years old.

19-

Interesting analysis, but I think that your data on depreciation is too dramatic.

None suffer 50% depreciation after only 5 years, and in fact some hardly suffer 20% after 5 years. Certainly, 15% per year is too much.