Tag: Social-Proof Bias

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***This is not an inverse post. This is a crack-pot estimate that cannot factor in geo-political or economic changes in the future. Use at your own discretion*** --- **Skip To End Game if You're Only Trying to Play Earnings*\* -- May 9-10th: the boring drop Due to ARM's shite guidance, NVDA as well as the rest of the semi-conductors are going to have a cool day tomorrow barring a sizeable increase in jobless claims (more jobless claims = economy doing crap, thus the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates, which Wall Street glazes themselves over). The reason? BS articles like this are being spread by the news that misattributes ARM's increase in pricing to the AI boom (of which it has no relation): https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tsmc-morgan-stanley-hikes-pt-on-arm-ai-cpu-boost-3426842 Normies eat this shit up and if SPY ain't peaking in the morning we're going to see a decrease or flat market at best bleeding into Friday. Call/Put skew further shows that traders are consolidating at $900 into the pre-pre-earnings week: ​ https://preview.redd.it/3wfjhk9dbazc1.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4fa3ea1fa1878a5ee298e5b16d03b5a6a80a9d1 https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/NVDA/VolatilitySkew/ The gist of this is that if we have really good news, NVDA could hit $920 but with poor market news could hit a bottom of $875 by this Friday. With VIX (a measure of market volatility, which measures fear) being below 16 and hovering around 13, Market Makers are likely to feed into trends and buy dips so this is bullish in the market overall. May 13-17th: the slight recovery then deep decline Heading into next week we are likely to see a recovery in price from the dip this week followed by a decline preceding earnings the following week. Why? Hedging. Wall Street as well as some retail investors are aware that the previous guidances issues were made under completely different macroeconomic expectations. Previously we were under the assumption that 3 rate cuts were coming whilst now only 1 possibly? The result is a drop in price akin to the previous earnings cycle but worse, given the poor earnings we've seen from fellow semiconductor manufacturers. The previous earnings cycle was actually positive across the board and what did we see? ​ https://preview.redd.it/u3j7wvaqdazc1.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=01f638b22d3b0eb198b7d9237993892b15121bd0 Roughly a $75 decline in share price during the week preceding earnings. And this was off of good news in the market. We could see the price hit sub-800 if everyone cashes out all at once in this week, if previous market behavior is anything to go off of. Depending on CPI on Wednesday and Jobless Claims on Thursday this could be mediated but we shall see. The likely range is 845-895 based on previous volatility around earnings. May 20-22nd: Earnings END-GAME Nvidia will most likely continue it's drop from the previous week but this isn't a problem for us. Why? Because we know NVDA is the shit. I mean it truly is in another league of it's own. It quite literally is the industry standard that only those on the know are aware of. Their platform is what pretty much everyone who trains AI is using and will continue to use due to how optimized it is. We're talking about the comparison of an iPhone in 2008 to a flimsy flip phone. It's just so much more advanced that they are crushing the competition. This is why regardless of AMD, INTC, SMCI, all of their failures, NVDA will absolutely crush EPS, Revenue, and Guidance. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/what-is-nvidia-what-do-they-make-ai-artificial-intelligence-rcna140171 They are the backbone of all AI training models right now and as it stands, no one is even close to touching them. Thus they will destroy expectations and rebound to even higher highs than Wall Street has expectations for due to their monopoly-like control of the industry. Barring a world war or FTC intervention, there is no way this stock can go down. ​ submitted by /u/rayrayrex [link] [comments]

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An under performed sector over the last 18 months. But have been on call options and vertical spreads since Jan 2024. (NEE/D/DUK) (XLU) Stick with utilities. submitted by /u/Lazydaygo [link] [comments]

$.30 EPS expected --- $.57 Reported 165.02 Million Rev Expected --- 167.55 Million Reported Now expects revenue this year of $726.5 million to $735.5 million up from its previous forecast of as much as $729.5 million and above an expected $728 million. Am I missing something or is this a good time to load up on some calls in the open tomorrow if this price stays? submitted by /u/Geocacher123 [link] [comments]

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With knockout certificates in germany (i am regarded) submitted by /u/blackpot49 [link] [comments]

FTX caused a major concern among investors in 2022 regarding the security of their cryptocurrency holdings.. But, if a crypto exchange goes bankrupt, there might be a chance to change customer deposits into dollars and pay them back if crypto prices go up again. This strategy wasn't used for FTX, but it was thought about when Mt. Gox went bankrupt around ten years ago.. Nevertheless, executing such a strategy without legal repercussions seems damn near impossible. When need a Michael Lewis sequel. submitted by /u/Same-Variety-677 [link] [comments]

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Declining sales for mobile chips - Apple recently announced the decline for iPhones was 10% this quarter. The only reason their stock pumped up was due to their share buy back announced. ARM will not have this luxury and decreasing demand will hurt them Previous guidance was made under the assumption of 3 rate cuts this year. We are down to maybe 1? This had hurt SMCI as well as AMD two chip manufacturers who build chips using ARM's archecture... suffice to say guidance will be poor hurting their stock price against Wall Streets insane expectations for chip manufacturers I have NVDA calls (expiring May 24th) , one of ARM's biggest customers, thus by proxy my calls are gonna tank after close. Honestly debating on buying ARM puts (expiring this Friday) to hedge but IV crush is gonna be a bitch with this one Edit: I bought calls expiring this Friday so it’s gonna crash. GG friends Edit 2: I told yall their revenue guidance would miss smh 🤦 submitted by /u/rayrayrex [link] [comments]

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Hey guys, Airbnb is reporting earnings today and I wanted to know everyone's thoughts on it. So far they're looking to hit $1.8 billion in revenue, marking a solid 20% year-over-year growth. Guys, that's insane. That’s not just good; it's their best first quarter ever. We're looking at a net income of $117 million compared to a net loss of $19 million last year. The turnaround story here is all about scaling revenue while keeping a tight leash on expenses and raking in some decent interest income. This rocketed their net income margin from a shitty -1% to a pretty decent +6%. So here I'm gonna outline my bullish thesis on Airbnb and try to justify buying calls for earnings. I want to know if it's a good idea. Cash Flow and Share Buybacks Free Cash Flow (FCF) hitting a massive $1.6 billion, thanks to increased bookings and margin expansions. What does Airbnb do with all that cash? Buybacks. They’ve bought back $2 billion worth of shares and just announced a new buyback program up to $2.5 billion. This rewards shareholders and boosts EPS. Bookings and Travel Trends Travel isn't just rebounding; it's evolving. Airbnb’s total Nights and Experiences booked jumped by 19%. 36% spike in cross-border bookings. Long-term stays (28 nights or more) are also doing well, making up 18% of all bookings. This isn't just a rebound; how and why people travel is changing. Supply Growth On the supply side, Airbnb boosted its listings by 18% year-over-year. That's growth across the board... North America, Latin America, urban, non-urban, etc. More supply means more options for consumers and more revenue potential for Airbnb. The Analyst's Angle From what I've read all analysts are keen on Airbnb's performance, noting the resilience in travel demand and robust financial health. Looking at pre-earnings forecasts there are strong expectations based on prevailing travel trends and economic conditions. My thoughts Airbnb is doing pretty damn well in our post-pandemic world. They're capitalizing on new travel behaviors, like increased interest in international destinations and longer stays, which could be a long-term trend rather than a short-lived reaction. So guys, what’s the play here? Airbnb seems to be on a solid path with strategic stock buybacks, strong quarterly performances, and robust growth prospects in the travel sector. You can grab shares if you're looking for a growth stock with some stability and bullish market sentiment. I'm going to grab calls tho. IV on calls actually doesn't make it seem like it's worth doing. If you expect a 5% bump AH, calls won't be profitable due to the premiums right now. 5/10 160c is $5.80/share. But I'll go ahead and grab the 165c just to see, it's a little cheaper at $3.75/share. submitted by /u/GrowYourConscious [link] [comments]

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares were in focus on Tuesday as Goldman Sachs raised its earnings estimates and price target on the semiconductor giant amid "robust" AI server demand and better supply. ​ Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari raised his price target to $1,100 from $1,000 and reiterated his Buy rating on Nvidia, raising his earnings estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 on average by 8%. ​ Despite Nvidia's near 85% gain year-to-date, positive earnings per share estimate revisions are likely coming, which should help drive the stock higher, Hari said. ​ And with shares trading at roughly 35 times earnings (or roughly a 36% premium compared to other semiconductor stocks in Hari's coverage universe), there may be more room for upside. ​ Nvidia is slated to report fiscal first-quarter results on May 22. A consensus of analysts expects the Jensen Huang-led company to earn $5.22 per share on $24.39B in revenue. ​ submitted by /u/DumplingGoddessTe [link] [comments]