What are the top 10 Commandments of Options Trading Strategies

I’m seeing a nice dimentional fibbonacci gap down to 720 before EOD submitted by /u/FuzzyTelephone5874 [link] [comments]

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After getting royally screwed by $TSLA puts earlier this week (down $10k cash and $10k gain), $GOOG came to my rescue with almost a 600% profit on a last min 1DTE call. Decided not to be greedy and pretty much sold at the top earlier today. Finally in the green for 2024... Onwards!!! submitted by /u/MolassesSea1239 [link] [comments]

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NVDA has hit the smoking floridian lizard pattern don’t miss out. submitted by /u/ZEUS_IIIII-_- [link] [comments]

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Take a look at the 1 year chart. These dumb asses have no handle on the inflation situation. They need the liquidity to cover the toxic loans covering commercial and industrial real estate so banks can remain solvent. There’s no way rates are getting cut anytime soon. submitted by /u/BansAndBands [link] [comments]

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Adjusted position slightly, net net more long exposure. Merger vote set for May 7th. submitted by /u/CanIMarginThat [link] [comments]

Inflation stays stubborn in March, with the core PCE index holding at 2.8%, slightly above expectations. Despite high prices, consumer spending and personal income continue to rise. Treasury yields drop, and Wall Street looks set to open higher. Fed might keep rates steady into the summer, watching inflation trends closely. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html submitted by /u/atlasmountsenjoyer [link] [comments]

View Post submitted by /u/wsbapp [link] [comments]

Tesla to the moon. submitted by /u/Nervous_Buffalo [link] [comments]

Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

Guys wtf is going on? Sold a 0dte iron condor on SPY. It goes to the moon after hours. My brokerage exercised the long calls now I have 6500 shares of SPY at 505?! The Schwab help desk told me if the 504s don’t get assigned I’m naked basically on these SPY shares. Am I fucked? Like if SPY opens down 1% or something am I going to have to sell these shares for an even greater loss? PLEASE HELP! submitted by /u/Overall_Response7764 [link] [comments]

Do you think this would impact the market and disincentivize people from investing as much? https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-24/bidens-2025-budget-proposal-seeks-tax-capital-gains-45-eliminate-crypto-tax submitted by /u/FreeReign0121 [link] [comments]

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Today, I trusted my gut after months of contemplating, and I liquidated my entire portfolio. Nothing makes sense right now, and here is what I mean by that: 40% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last four years. While many have seen the figure that 80% of the total M1 money supply has been created in the last 4 years, it is important to note that the FED changed the definition of M1 in May 2020. However, this is still a staggering figure, and it keeps going up - this is not sustainable. Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power in the last four years. Your money sitting over the last four years has lost 25% of its value. For some people, they are blessed to say "wow, my savings are losing value"; however, for the majority of Americans living paycheck to paycheck (~78%), this means they can no longer afford 25% of what they used to be able to. Or rather, they can only afford 75% of what they used to be able to, as wages have not even remotely kept up. When you lose 25% of your purchasing power and live paycheck to paycheck, you are forced to adjust your lifestyle or take on incremental debt. Off the last bullet, credit card debt is at an all time high, and credit card delinquency is worst on record. Here are some quick stats: 49% of credit card holders carry a balance month to month, credit card delinquencies have soared more than 50% in the past year, and 6.4% of all accounts are now 90 days past due, and the average credit card annual percentage rate is at a record 20.74%. Further, buy now pay later ("BNPL") service usage hit an all time high this past holiday season. Finally, 78.9% of federal student loan balances are on forbearance or default status as of 4/18/2024 which accounts for 71.5% of borrowers. Basics like food are up multiples. No need to explain further, we have all been to the grocery store and felt this. Homes are completely unaffordable / the cost of buying a home has hit an all time high, as such, home ownership is becoming less feasible and millennials / Gen Z are not building equity in what has historically been American's most valuable asset. Child care is skyrocketing. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) states that child care is considered affordable when it costs families no more than 7% of their household income; however, that figure is roughly 24%. Bank of America said the average childcare payment per household has risen over 30% since 2019 for its customers. We are at a point where some families are determining if they are better off to become a single income household versus a dual income household with child care. While the USD still remains the most dominant force (by a significant margin), regardless of opinion on sanctions, sanctions typically lead to weakening the USD. Further, nations are considering moving away from the USD more now than ever before. So much so that political candidates are discussing potential penalties for nations that move away from the USD. GDP missed estimates this morning at 1.6% versus estimates of 2.2%. Finally, not to mention all of the chaos going on in the world right now. Conflict in Eastern Europe, conflict in the Middle East, the US border crisis, China & Taiwan, etc. All the while, we are being told that everything is fine! There is nothing to worry about! This is the soft landing we have been looking for, and inflation is normalizing...right? I mean even the stock market recently hit an all time high. Janet Yellen said it herself today, despite the GDP miss, the US economy is firing on all cylinders. I know this is my opinion, but I am looking around and things are not adding up. It doesn't make sense, and I do not think that this is sustainable. Thank you for reading, I look forward to seeing other's opinions. submitted by /u/JamesC7242 [link] [comments]

Looking for your top picks with earnings season in May for most. Seems like the most undervalued sector. submitted by /u/Willing-Reason-2312 [link] [comments]

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I truly believe some of the best money made can be on a algo overreaction sell off. This only applies on good companies where it was a slight miss but at the end of the day it’s still a cash cow Meta is one of those companies. Entered this morning on 2 different strikes once at 416 and again at 428. submitted by /u/Jww2124 [link] [comments]

400 SPY 510 calls, 70 SPY 505 calls. Pray for me for tomorrow morning 🙏 submitted by /u/Low-King3567 [link] [comments]

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Bye bye bears 👋 submitted by /u/Brendawg324 [link] [comments]

Imagine being the only chip stock to fail miserably at earnings 💀 submitted by /u/Brendawg324 [link] [comments]

Hey everyone! During the past years I completely avoid managing my finances because I was completely overwhelmed by work. This community is truly inspiring and now that my professional life is finally stabilizing, I took the decision to roll my sleeves and start managing my personal finances. I would like to get to FI as quickly as possible even though I love my work. I will soon have 2 weeks of vacations and want to use that time to pivot HARD and go from unmanaged finances to structured and with a clear path ahead. Could you please tell me about the traps and the mistakes to avoid? Is there a clear guideline I could follow? I am Canadian and have no clue… : - Where to invest my money o VIT, VOO, QQQ? o Do you advise investing in one index or multiple? - How much I should keep in my emergency fund and where to stash it so I gain some % while still having easy access to it - Should I prioritize CELI, CELIAPP or REER? - Is owning a house overrated? I don’t mind living in a rented apartment (the flat I rent is great : well located, big, beautiful and cheap!) - What other accounts should I open, other than emergency, checking and CELI and REER? Anything I am missing? Here are some infos about me : - 31M - I make about 75k per year with $3K-5K raises every year (will be capped at 120K approx.) - 60K in savings not invested - I can save approx. 17K per year - No kids and not planning to have any - Not mortgage - No car - I live in Canada Any comment is very welcomed! And thank you all for posting and making this community so lively!  submitted by /u/Such_Towel596 [link] [comments]

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Making a new post for visibility...there is just about a week left for you to respond to the 2023 /r/FinancialIndependence annual survey. This is an annual effort to learn more about how we are doing as a sub. Follow the link below to the original survey post. https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/1bru9pm/the_official_2023_fi_survey_is_here/ submitted by /u/Melonbalon [link] [comments]

I fired at 45, five years ago. Each year I have been posting updates of how life is going after Fire. I can ramble a bit so please bear with me. If you care, the previous posts are here : https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/bghjcb/i_fired_at_age_45_15m/ https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/g8qly8/1_year_fire_update_ha/ https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/myb92j/2_year_fire_update_ha/ https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/u8sdrb/3_year_fire_update_ha/ https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/12xslzy/4_year_fire_update_ha/ Well another year down! Its been a ride. I’m glad I pulled the trigger when I did. It seems the work environment just got kind of crazy since I jumped out of the rat race. First they kick everyone out of the office, then demand everyone come back in, then try and beg or punish employees who found WFH was actually pretty nice. Just craziness. Basically same thing I said last year I just feel it even more so. I went on a Alaskan cruise with some friends. That was fun though sad to see the state of the glaciers. The ship was impressive, basically a floating skyscraper hotel. I am fully aware that taking a cruise ship while being upset about the state of the environment is all sorts of moronic. What kind of world will we leave to Keith Richards? I got off diet and inflated the waist line so now I have to be strict to drop some pounds. Its amazing how easy to put weight on and how hard to take it off. However Blood pressure is still great and no diabetes. I can’t ask for much more than that. Heath insurance is still the biggest pain. I’m doing ACA but I’m not great at controlling my MAGI. I feel like I may be missing something. I’m currently on a silver plan. I should probably think about a gold or plat plan but the price just scares me. This year I spent about 55k. More than I wanted to but a good chunk of that was for a new roof due to storm damage and car repair for the same storm. My insurance did reimburse or cover for almost all of that so my actual spend was probably closer to 40k. I also spent a good 5k on upgrading the home theater system. 4k movies in HRD10+ look great. I was using mint to track my spending, but I have not found / picked a replacement yet. [Suggestions welcome] Overall I don’t feel to bad. My spending should be under the theoretical amount for my net worth. On my spreadsheet I have it set for 3.5%. That’s right at 60k. As long as I’m under that I think I have done about all I can to ensure long term success. This was the second year I pulled from my investments. About ½ from poor performing stock picks and ½ from my [not] annuity account. Current net worth is about 1.9m. It was a bit more but market volatility has been bumpy. The good news is there is actually a hair more in there that 1 year ago despite my spending. The market is bumpy and with this year being an election and all I expect plenty of volatility. I will just do my best not to look to often. That way lies madness… Currently I have about 1.2 in regular investments. .5 in retirement accounts. The rest is in the house or what I’m living on. The house is interesting. Its in a high growth area and the city appraisals are going insane. This year it actually went down a hair because they jacked it up so much last year. I’m considering moving but only as long as I can find a way to buy another house without a mortgage. I have considered renting this place.. but I’m not sure I want the headache. Well that’s all for now. I hope someone finds it interesting. submitted by /u/hows_my_fi [link] [comments]

Hi. I am pondering over a thought exercise I'd like to share with you. When is the investment we have sufficiently big, that adding to it becomes irrelevant? For example: I'm investing 1000 a month into a hypothetical investment that has a 10% return. The second month the funds added basically double the investment (~+100%). Arguably a significant addition. But when the investment has reached one hundred thousand, the additional investment is just 1% of our pot of money. Still significant, but much less. If the investment grows to one million (after a long while, yes, but theoretically speaking), the additional 1000 is just 0.1% of the investment, that is earning more than 8000 a month on its own. When is the snowflake I'm adding to the snowball irrelevant, considering the snow it is gathering by it's own while rolling downhill? Is there a percentage that can be used as a (orientative) yardstick? submitted by /u/Thomxy [link] [comments]

Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

Hello, I am 21 years old and have been lurking on this sub for about 5 years whilst pursuing my own FIRE. I am curious if anyone has a decent idea to offer to a young person trying to get a good start on FIRE. I get that this is incredibly dependent on a wide range of factors. I will list the more significant parts of my situation so there is something specific to refer to, but I also welcome generic advice. I would also appreciate if like-minded people with a bit more life experience than me could poke holes or maybe even validate some of the ideas I have that tend to earn me unconstructive criticism from most of the people I meet in real life. **My specific situation:** 21M with long term girlfriend and no dependents Bachelor's degree in CS ML Engineer for government outside of Seattle area. Current salary 70k, but is all but guaranteed to ramp up to 100k by April 2026, and 150k by 2036(capped here). Salary is based on GS payscale which automatically adjusts for inflation. I intend for this to primarily be a housing discussion, but I'd be happy to field "get a better job" comments as well. I will say though that the appeal of FIRE to me is time=freedom and this is basically a part time job. I will need to pull the trigger on one of these options at the end of the year, when I actually move to the area. I estimate that I will have roughly 70k liquid by the end of the year with the ability to save 40k in 2025 and 45k until 2028, then linearly approaching 80k yearly savings by 2036 assuming no job change **and assuming no rent or mortgage**. **Housing in my area(oversimplified):** EDIT: this is kitsap penninsula with ferry commute 🙂 Rent 1bdrm apt 1200/month Buildable 1/2acre+ lot 100k Trailer park unit 125k Condo 225k Townhomes and crack shacks 250k "starter" homes 275-350k "respectable" homes 450-500k **Options and Constraints:** I have a long term girlfriend and we'd love to have 3 kids within the next 8 years. We'd love to have a decent place to raise them by the time the firstborn is old enough to walk (not apartment/"creative" living arrangement). Basically, move into a house in the next 3 years as a stretch target. Option A: Rent for $1500/month for 3 years, aggressively save, put down as big of a down payment as we can muster on "starter" home with 30 year mortgage. Option B: Put as little down as possible now on starter home and ride out mortgage. Option C: Rent indefinitely until the housing market crashes. Option D: Go full throttle toward getting a remote job and move to Kentucky where I can buy a house in cash tomorrow. Option E (why I made this post at all): Stretch to buy land outright or put 70% down on it by the end of the year, borrow parent's RV and live out of that while buying materials/minimum necessary contractor assistance to DIY build house for roughly 150k (Finish in 3ish years). I've been a hobby carpenter for awhile, but this would still be a massive step up in complexity/difficulty. I am fairly confident I could do this time-wise while working for the government, if I went private sector this option is no longer on the table. I am budgeting roughly 3k hours to get the house "mostly" finished and good enough to raise kids in which I believe I could spare over the 3-3.5 year period necessary to raise funds for it. Option E-2: same but use house-kit or prefab instead of raw materials **Summary:** Home prices are very high and I feel like signing a mortgage would all but murder my FIRE goals. I am a very motivated, high energy individual who feels up to the challenge of building my own house. This was actually one of my main motivators for RE in the first place, to build a house while I was still young enough to do so (though the original plan was to spend my first year "retired" working construction to gain experience). After getting a gov job, the wheels started turning in my head that I could do whilst working. If I need to get pulled down to earth, please don't be subtle. I'm pretty hell bent on this, but I'm trying really hard to be open minded. It's just really hard to stomach getting locked into a $3500-4000 monthly payment where like 1/3 of it is going into the equity of an asset priced more relatively expensive now than in 2008 and the other 2/3 is evaporating. submitted by /u/CelestialChicken [link] [comments]

Can someone help me think through variable financial withdrawal rates and what the equivalent of the 4% rule is. Standard 4% Rule - I begin by withdrawing a fixed sum of 4% from my portfolio every month. I adjust this amount with inflation yearly. I continue indefinitely. Variable X% withdrawal - This approach makes more sense to me, I withdraw 4% / 12 = .33% of my total portfolio on a repeating basis each month. Questions What is the likelihood my purchasing power remains the same over a 30 year period? Obviously I won’t ever deplete to 0, because of how %’s work. But curious odds that purchasing power remains reasonable. Is there a way to model or factor in lowering the withdrawal amounts by 10-20% during months/periods of market decline? Would this allow a higher rate otherwise? Anyone else planning to follow this pattern? It seems more ‘human’ for lack of a better term than attempting to follow a rigid 4% inflation adjusted withdrawal blindly. submitted by /u/6rhodesian6 [link] [comments]

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Hello /r/financialindependence, I'm seeking financial independence advice as a recent newlywed. I'm 37 and partner is 31, together we make a modest joint income (~150K) in a HCOL- NYC. Cash: 65K Vanguard brokerage: 60K 401K & Roth: 300K Home equity: 1.2M, 0 mortgage FAFSA student loan & interest: (145K) With the changing landscape of student loan forgiveness, is there much incentive to pay down the FAFSA student loan as soon as possible (using cash, selling from brokerage/401K accounts, taking out a home equity loan, etc.)? We also plan to start a family and hopefully have a child together by next year. Any financial planning tips for recent newlyweds would be most appreciated! Thank you *Edit: I accrued no debt because my parents put me through school and gifted substantially for my home. I built my retirement pretty late in the game maxing out 401K/roth since my early 30s, but was able to payoff a 300K home mortgage using my own savings. I assumed the student loan debt of $145K after marrying my wife. If I could do it over again, I would have used my savings to payoff her student loan instead of paying off the house. My desire to live debt-free might be misguided too because now that I'm running out of funds, taking on more debt with expenses to rise once starting a family, lead me to seek financial advice, thank you submitted by /u/WalletPhoneKeysPump [link] [comments]

A while back I made a post (linked below) about how safe withdrawal rates are impacted by valuations. At the time, I also did a shallow dive into asset allocation impacts, and found some pretty interesting stuff. I finally got around to creating a deep dive summary of my findings. This particular post is only concerning 10 year annualized returns, but my findings were quite similar for safe withdrawal rates. I plan on doing a follow up soon with just SWR impacts, which should be much shorter, but this felt like a good jumping off point. O.G. POST Introduction As of this writing, first drafted on April 22 2024, the Shiller PE sits at 33.27. Many analysts and investment managers will tell you to fear this number. In his latest memo, Jeremy Grantham says that today’s price-to-earnings metrics sit in the top 1% of modern history, sounding the alarm for U.S. equity bubble territory. Well, the U.S. is really enjoying itself if you go by stock prices. A Shiller P/E of 34 (as of March 1st) is in the top 1% of history. Total profits (as a percent of almost anything) are at near-record levels as well. Remember, if margins and multiples are both at record levels at the same time, it really is double counting and double jeopardy – for waiting somewhere in the future is another July 1982 or March 2009 with simultaneous record low multiples and badly depressed margins. I don’t think it’s quite so simple; it might not be appropriate to look at a single asset class in a vacuum the way that many in the investment community do. Is a 30+ PE high? Objectively, it sounds pretty frothy. If bonds were yielding 10%, I’d almost certainly say that bonds were more attractive. If they were yielding sub-2% like much of the post GFC decade, it might not be as straight forward. At a Shiller PE in the low 30’s, we have a very conservative 3% earnings yield (remember, Shiller averages the past 10 years of earnings) before even accounting for earnings growth. One might conclude that stocks have the slight edge in this case. The point is, we can’t look at a single valuation metric and make an informed decision. We have to consider valuations of equities against the universe of other asset types. With this post, my aim is to take a more holistic look at valuations - particularly valuation spreads - and see if we can’t make investment decisions based on our findings. A Simple Visualization A great place to start with this analysis, and the place that I started when I first began exploring this topic, is a quick visualization plotting stock yields vs bond yields. By doing so, we can start to form a picture on where we are in respect with history. PICTURE It’s important to point out what inferences we might try to gage from this chart. First, intuition tells us that high earnings yields and high bond yields (as defined by the 10-year treasury, in this case) would lead to high forward equity and bond returns, respectively. So the further right on the plot we are, the higher the future equity returns might be. Likewise, the higher (vertically) the point is, the higher the bond returns should be. With further inspection, the right most points correspond with the years surrounding the late 1910’s and early 1920’s; leading into what has been monikered the roaring 20’s. 1982 is also highlighted on this plot; which was the kickoff to one of the strongest bond and bull markets in history. These are in-line with our expectations: high returns happen when yields are high. Duh. Don’t worry, there’s more. More generally, the further up and to the right we are on the aforementioned graph, the better we can expect forward returns to be for a diversified portfolio. It’s apt to point out that 2022 was basically the inverse of 1982, having the lowest bond & stock yield combination in the modern era. In fact, the post-GFC era was essentially hugging the lower bounds of both stock and bond yields compared to the pre-GFC era. We can also start to see a shadow of how bonds and stocks might be related. Perhaps when bonds are yielding higher than stocks, stock returns suffer in relation to bonds. We see that the year 2000 (the dotcom bubble top) had equity earnings yields just over 2% (the lowest in history) while treasuries were yielding nearly 7%. We all know how that turned out. On that note, one might hypothesize that the spread between stock earnings yields and bond yields might be a predictor on how portfolios perform over time. More on that later. Historical Equity-Bond Spreads Let’s first define what the Equity-Bond Spread is: Equity-Bond Spread = (1 / CAPE) - (10 Year Treasury Yield) PICTURE Again, the implication is that the higher the equity-bond spread (simply referred to as “spread” moving forward) the more attractive equities are in comparison to bonds (i.e., equity earnings yield of 10% looks more attractive than a 3% bond yield, the spread being 10% - 3% = 7%) The figure below shows us the historical distributions of equity-bond spreads. Also noted, that today’s valuations lie in the left side of the distribution. Excess Returns The goal of this study is to see if we can find some indication on whether the spread between stock and bond yields is predictive of future returns. The easiest way to accomplish this is to compare a stock heavy portfolio to a bond heavy portfolio. One might argue between something super stock heavy like a 90/10 (stock / bond) vs 60/40. But let’s first look at complete opposites of the spectrum: 90/10 vs 10/90. We’ll define “excess return” as follows: Excess Return = (10 year annualized return of 90 / 10 portfolio) - (10 year annualized return of a 10 / 90 portfolio) As an example, in the year 1990, a 90/10 portfolio had a 10 year annualized return of 13.6% while a 10/90 portfolio had a 10 year annualized return of 5.3%, giving an excess return of 8.3%. Also, in the year 1990, the Shiller PE was 17.05 giving a equity earnings yield of 5.87%. The 10 year treasury yield was 8.21% at that time. This gives a spread of -2.34%. The point for 1990 is shown on the plot below at (-2.34% , 8.3%). The red arrow denotes where we are in 2024. PICTURE The big takeaway from this plot is that 1) stocks outperform bonds almost always and 2) there is a decent correlation between the equity-bond spread and excess returns. When stocks yield much higher than bonds, stock heavy portfolios tend to do better, in comparison, vs when the spread is low or negative. But we already knew that stocks typically perform better than bonds. The better assessment might be when to overweight stocks compared to a more traditional portfolio. Or, better yet, when to take the foot off the gas on a stock heavy portfolio. So let’s do the same exercise, this time comparing a 90/10 to a more traditional 60/40. PICTURE I’ve left the original 10/90 comparison on the plot for the visualization. As expected, the excess returns, across the board, are less pronounced because we’re comparing a stock heavy portfolio to a slightly less stock heavy portfolio. But the conclusion is clear. The spread does appear to have an impact on excess returns. In negative spread environments, we’re not paid nearly as much for the extra risk as when spreads are positive and wide. In highly positive spread environments, excess returns can be in the range of 3 - 5%. Which, we all know, can be very impactful over the long-run. Understanding Valuation Drivers For bonds, valuation is pretty easy: an investor can purchase a bond for a given yield-to-maturity (although returns on bonds aren’t quite as simple). For equities, we should examine the components of the discounted cash flow model. In the long run, a PE ratio might be estimated as follows (this is the terminal value equation): PE = (1+g) / (d-g) Above, “g” is the long run earnings growth rate, and “d” is the discount rate. In the case of price-to-earnings, “d” will be the cost of equity. I won’t cover these more in depth here because this is a very simplified look, but cost of equity is essentially a measure of risk or the required expected return for the asset. From this, we can actually glean a lot of useful information. If the security is considered very safe (ie low risk), the discount rate “d” will be low (since the required rate of return is typically lower for a safe asset). A low discount rate in the equation above will lead to a higher PE ratio. Conversely, a risky security will have a high discount rate, which will lead to a lower PE. A high long run growth rate, “g”, will increase the numerator and decrease the denominator, leading to a higher PE for a given discount rate. From these three ideas, we see that risk and growth are comingled in valuations. Something that’s low risk and has low earnings growth might actually have the same high PE valuation as something that’s high risk and high earnings growth. But the expected return will actually be higher for the high risk security. This all just to say that while PE ratios are related to forward expected returns, they don’t tell the full story. This is an important caveat to the next section. Current Valuations By Asset Classes The following data was pulled from Vanguards Website. VOO = S&P 500 BND = Bond Index VEA = Developed International VNQ = REITs VWO = Emerging Markets PICTURE This chart isn’t meant to be used to decide what asset mixture to make your portfolio. Instead, it’s meant to be used, qualitatively, as a starting point to see what asset mixes might make sense to hold. Typically, in terms of valuations, the further up and to the right (high starting yield + high earnings growth) on this graph indicates higher predicted forward returns. But there are trade offs. Namely, this doesn’t account, directly, for risk. Bonds (BND) is considered ‘risk-free’, but it doesn’t offer any potential for earnings (or coupon) growth. Developed international (VEA) looks attractive compared to the S&P 500 (VOO) on a starting yield basis, but it has offered less earnings growth, and comes with extra baggage in terms of geopolitical risk. But high risk does typically mean higher potential returns. The same goes for Emerging Markets (VWO), but to an even greater extent. Does History Have to Look Like the Past Something else to consider, especially when looking back at the first couple of sections, is “does today have to look like the past?” Do current market environment have stocks overvalued, or is it that historic valuations had stocks inordinately undervalued? Maybe stocks aren’t as risky as we first thought. Especially in the U.S., the largest companies might not carry a ton of risk at all. In that sense, maybe it was the early days of modern capitalism that were inefficient, and we’re now getting to a more balanced regime in terms of valuations, where risk-free bonds yield in the 3-5% range, and slightly riskier stocks return in the 5-7% range. In this case, the current spread environment would make sense, where starting yields are much closer, and the earnings growth potential of stocks makes up the difference in forward expected returns. But this would be all the more reason to hold a diversified portfolio. Why hold only stocks, when stocks and bonds will give a similar range of outcomes. Stocks also offer other advantages over bonds. Namely inflation protection. If inflation spikes, bonds an investor is currently holding will not only lose value due to rising interest rates, but the purchasing power of the dollars tied to those bonds will decline over time. Stocks are somewhat more resilient in that revenues and earnings (assuming steady margins) will rise with inflation. In this sense, stocks are actually less risky than bonds or cash. Inflation also affects the spread in another way. The CAPE ratio uses inflation adjusted earnings from the past. What this means is that in a high inflation environment, the CAPE ratio comes down without any correction in price. We saw this in 2022 where the CAPE fell nearly 30% while the S&P 500 only fell 18%. Due to this phenomena, in a high inflation environment, the metrics used above can correct themselves even while equity prices are climbing. Another potential issue with this study is that accounting standards have changed over time. Earnings today may not be comparable to earnings of the past. I haven’t explored these potential differences here, but it might be prudent to do so if you were to use this study for actionable advice. Conclusions Are we in a Bubble? To give Jeremy Grantham a rebuttal (although, I’m sure he’s not asking for one). No, I don’t think we’re in an outright bubble. U.S. markets might be frothy, and forward returns will probably be lower for U.S. stocks, but we’ve seen in the data above that 10 year returns have been fine given any market spread and valuation. Would I be surprised if we had another bear market? No. But I’d be just as un-surprised if we average 6-8% equity returns for the next decade. Asset Allocations To me, when presented with the data above, it doesn’t seem likely that we’ll be rewarded for holding an overweight U.S. equity portfolio. While equities should continue to outperform bonds for the next ten years, if today’s environment rhymes with history, holding an underweight stock portfolio won’t cost us much in terms of returns. But it may come with the added benefit of lower volatility and overall risk. An underweight portfolio also still has some potential to outperform. That all seems like a good trade-off. In addition, international (both developed and emerging) markets have relatively enticing valuations and return prospects. While there’s no guarantee that either will outperform U.S. equities, they may offer uncorrelated returns that also won’t drag too much on the overall portfolio. In general, given the current valuation environment, a balanced portfolio might be the best path forward for risk adjusted returns. Citations Shiller PE and Treasury Yield Data: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Historical Return Data: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html submitted by /u/beerion [link] [comments]

Self-promotion (ie posting about projects/businesses that you operate and can profit from) is typically a practice that is discouraged in /r/financialindependence, and these posts are removed through moderation. This is a thread where those rules do not apply. However, please do not post referral links in this thread. Use this thread to talk about your blog, talk about your business, ask for feedback, etc. If the self-promotion starts to leak outside of this thread, we will once again return to a time where 100% of self-promotion posts are banned. Please use this space wisely. Link-only posts will be removed. Put some effort into it. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

first time poster…divorced at 47 and started fresh with net worth around 90k. Had a steady job (160k) that helped with alimony and child support payments. Currently supporting second/last kid in college costing 70k per year (3 more years to go). I have no one else to share and seek suggestions on how I am doing or needs to change investments/allocations in preparation for retiring at 62 or earlier. Here is the breakdown of my portfolio: Condo: valued 525k (bought in 2019, refied to 15 fixed @2.5%), mortgage balance 265k payoff date 10/2035 total monthly payment 3k 401k: 585k (70/30 stocks/bonds) 529: 80k HYSA: 125k Trad IRA: 62k (random stocks/etfs down 35k) Roth IRA: 97k (random stocks/etfs down 40k) Brokerage: 200k mostly in money market HSA: 20k (not contributing now bcos of health issues and can’t afford high deductible plan) Checking: 9k Auto loan: balance 34k@2.5% Current net worth 1.25m Yearly contributions: 401k: max at 30,500. Match 18k. Mega back door Roth IRA: 20k Gross pay+bonus: 240k Net take home pay: 7.5k Current expenses: 4k mortgage+auto loan payments, 2k to 3.5k other expenses Planning to retire at 62 if health permits and I can hold on to my job Social Security payments at 62 is estimated at 2.5k Estimated expenses at 62 is 80k annually submitted by /u/Far-Court-5517 [link] [comments]

Posts in here often analyze various withdrawal strategies for those with steady yearly expenses, that some of which can be cut back in tough times. But I never see how people handle a known lumpy expense in retirement like funding a child's college education. Let's assume the average cost of attendance of a state school of $25k/yr, and you have 2-3 kids that you're wanting to pay for all 4 years. I know there are opportunities for other scholarships, financial aid and other ways to bring the costs down, but let's assume your kids don't receive those and are on the hook for $200k or 300k all in total. For those who aren't going for r/chubbyfire or r/fatfire and have more financial flexibility, this figure makes up more than 10% of your NW and can make or break your retirement if not properly planned for ahead of time. Unlike retirement, paying for college is a fixed 4-year period and if the market tanks 50% like it did in 2008-09 you don't have the luxury of delaying until the market recovers, so you can't go with 100% stocks. Many Millennials in here were in or about to start college and can relate to this scenario and would've hated if their parents took too many risks with their college funds that jeopardized their future. Assuming that you never want to go back to work or alter these college plans in a GFC like scenario, what does your optimal asset allocation look like? How does it fit in with the rest of your retirement withdrawal strategy? Do you do a glide path/tent to cash/bonds a few years before, and when does that start? Edit: I'm aware of the concept of slowly moving to bonds or cash to preserve capital, but at what rate? Does anyone have any back tests or mathematical evidence for starting 1 year before vs 10 years before etc. What percent in equities etc? Obviously it probably can't be as risky as in retirement since its such a short spending timeframe submitted by /u/9stl [link] [comments]

Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

In tax sheltered accounts like 401ks and IRAs, re-balancing is straightforward since there are no tax implications until you withdraw. Is there any way to rebalance a non-tax sheltered, individual brokerage account in a tax-efficient way? I don’t think this exists, but thought I would ask the community at least. My individual investments are too skewed towards a few individual stocks for my liking, but I think if I’d want to rebalance I’d just have to sell some and eat the capital gains that year, right? What do y’all do when your holdings are uncomfortably skewed toward a few stocks aside from avoiding that situation in the first place? (I have only been doing broad index funds like VOO and VTI for a long time now and plan to only invest in these in the future, until it’s time for bonds). Thanks in advance! submitted by /u/robo_capybara [link] [comments]

Hi, I recently discovered the FIRE idea and have done a bit of reading but am a bit confused about balance "during" achieving FIRE. I guess I'm wondering if it's another workaholic scam of some sort or can actually be attained sustainably. What I mean is, to achieve FIRE is it sufficient to just be diligent in your work and frugal with your earnings, or is it about putting in 60-hour weeks for 10 years and "sacrificing" your 20s/30s for your 40s+? I was recently talking to a gentleman I've known for a while, who is around 30, and he was telling me he hasn't been home before 6PM from work since he started in his early 20s. I don't agree with this mentality, as you can't "save up" your time and live it later, once it's gone it's gone; you never get your youthful 20s/30s back. I recently quit/resigned from medical school where this "scam" was super prevalent also; "sacrifice 10+ years of your life putting in 60+ hour weeks and when you're 35/40 you can begin to live life a little". I'm the type of person that would much rather put in a steady 35/40 hours per week and live well steadily along the way, enjoying every week, than do some sort of burnout scheme for a potential reward when I'm too old to enjoy it properly. Anyways. thoughts? Is FIRE a reasonable idea to pursue while maintaining a healthy/balanced work-life balance? Thanks. submitted by /u/Post_Base [link] [comments]

Hoping to get an early sanity check on retirement trajectory! My dad died of liver cancer this past year and he was 68 years old. It really makes the standard retirement age of 65-67 look insane to me when it seems like I have a good chance of dying of cancer at the same age as him. My wife and I have a mortgage on a house we want to live in until we are very old. It has an attached in-law apartment we rent out for supplemental income. Debt: Student Loan 3.375% $9,026.48 Car Loan 3.900% $24,584.97 Couch Loan 0.000% $6,092.66 Mortgage 3.125% $470,998.72 Current monthly budget: +Job Income (Pre-tax): $14,834 +Rent Income: $1,925 -Taxes and Insurance $3,343.81 -Retirement: $2,400 -Mortgage: $2,101 -Mortgage escrow: $865.59 -Car Expenses (Gas, insurance, maintenance, care): $372 -Utilities: $835 -Car payment: $553 -Couch Payment: $120 -Student Loans: $53.56 -Food and misc: $1,548 Expenses Total: $6,449 Investments and Investment Activity Monthly 401k Contributions with Employer match: $2909 (Does not include Roth IRA which we just maxed out for 2024 and might into the future) Retirement accounts sum of balances (401ks, Roth IRAs, IRAs): $152,845 Regular Retail Investment Account: $48,794.00 Goals We want to be able to stop working without losing our home or decent standard of living. Age is up in the air, but it would be great to stop working at 55. We want a couple kids. I hear this is an earth shattering financial decision but we have personal intrinsic reasons for this. I am unsure of how much money we will need in retirement as our budget doesn't really include healthcare. Is it too early to forecast monthly retirement expenses? If we paid off our mortgage and continued to collect rent today, we would only have $2500 left in expenses to cover with job income. Of course we would want to travel on some level in retirement. submitted by /u/Zephyr4813 [link] [comments]

You have 10 years until early retirement. You have $7k each month to invest into real estate or stocks. You cannot invest in IRA/401k/HSA and you have built a strong emergency fund. You started buying real estate 10 years ago and currently own a small real estate portfolio today. How would you invest your money? Do you: 1. Continue to buy real estate. Buy one single/multi family rental each year for the next 10 years 2. Save your money for a few years and buy a larger apartment building closer to retirement 3. Stop buying real estate and Invest in stocks and REITs 4. Stop investing and pay off all mortgages. Currently 65% LTV across my portfolio. 5. Simplify my life, sell off all rental real estate, buy more stocks and live the 4% life 6. Do some combination of things listed 7. Do something else not mentioned here. submitted by /u/False-Ad4427 [link] [comments]

Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. submitted by /u/AutoModerator [link] [comments]

Aloha to you all, Always active on these financial Reddit forums and thought I’d finally make my first post in one. I am a 24M born and raised in Hawai’i. If you don’t know, the cost of living here in Hawai’i is higher then most in the US. I sometimes feel I’m behind in my finances at my age and just maybe want some feedback on anything I can do better. I have no car loan , I’ve never went college (so no student loan), and credit cards which are paid off every month. I’m been recently been becoming extremely aggressive with investing my money (I wish I started earlier) . I am a valet driver here in Hawai’i (but surprisingly make enough where I’m in a “comfortable” living situation) . My current investments below. 26k in a taxable brokerage account 20k in my Roth IRA (started in 2022) 14k in 401k (I contribute 12% of paycheck, my job matches up to 6%) 10k in actual gold (I made a bad financial purchase of buying a 14k gold rope chain) 4k in crypto 4k in savings account I’ve set financial goals for myself in the amount I would like to have invested in at some point. One of main goals is that I would like to achieve 100k in my taxable brokerage account alone by my 27th birthday (hoping to get there before that). Currently with the housing market here in Hawai’i, I have no interest in buying a home here anytime soon . I pay about 1300 in rent per month. Let me know what you guys think . Mahalo (thank you) submitted by /u/Keolacampa [link] [comments]